Dubai's Grade A Office Wave: AED 2.8bn, 87 Storeys and 20.4 Million Sq Ft Coming — What It Does to Office Yields

Quick answer

Dubai's office market is the tightest segment in UAE real estate right now, and three announcements in roughly a month signal that developers intend to fix that — on a timeline that matters more than the headlines.

The announcements

• Berkeley Tower — Ellington Properties with Al Hamra, Business Bay, a Grade A office development of 60-plus floors, total development value AED 2.8 billion
• Christian A. Rockefeller Business Tower — LMD, Sheikh Zayed Road, 87 storeys, handover due Q2 2031
• AHS Twin Towers — AHS Properties, designed by Gensler, on the former Shangri-La Dubai site on Sheikh Zayed Road, total project value USD 1.3 billion

The market they are entering

Savills recorded average Dubai office rents of AED 241 (USD 66) per sq ft in Q3 2026, with about 20,200 rental transactions in the quarter — down 8% quarter-on-quarter. New leases were 51% of activity and renewals 49%.

The pipeline behind them

Savills counts about 20.4 million sq ft of gross leasable office space due between 2026 and 2030, with the larger increase arriving from 2028. Critically for investors: strata-titled buildings account for 86% of 2028 supply and 78% of 2029 supply, before the pipeline shifts toward mainly single-owned buildings by 2030.

That strata concentration is the single most important number in this article, and the reason is explained below.

Why Dubai offices got tight in the first place

Two structural facts set the current conditions.

Demand is overwhelmingly small-unit. 66% of Q3 2026 office rental transactions were for units under 1,000 sq ft, and 40% were under 500 sq ft. The largest single requirement recorded in the quarter was over 30,000 sq ft. Dubai's office demand is driven by a very large number of small businesses, company formations and professional firms — not by a handful of corporate headquarters.

Supply has not matched quality demand. Toby Hall, Head of Commercial Agency at Savills Middle East, framed the pattern around "well-located Grade A buildings, particularly those offering strong transport links and modern amenities" — which is precisely the stock in shortest supply. The result is prime districts such as DIFC, Downtown Dubai and Business Bay commanding premiums while older or poorly located stock lags.

The strata problem nobody puts on a brochure

Here is where the 2028 figure becomes an investment issue rather than a statistic.

A strata-titled office building is sold floor by floor or unit by unit to many individual owners. A single-owned building has one landlord. The difference changes almost everything about the asset from a tenant's and an investor's perspective:

• A corporate tenant taking two floors in a strata building deals with multiple owners, inconsistent fit-out standards, and an owners' association that must agree on lobby, lift and facade upgrades. Large occupiers consistently prefer single-owned stock.
• Service charges and building management in strata towers depend on collective decisions. One block of unpaid service charges can degrade the common areas that determine the rent every other owner achieves.
• Repositioning is close to impossible. A single owner can refurbish the whole building to chase higher rents. A strata owner cannot.

So when 86% of 2028 supply and 78% of 2029 supply is strata, the honest reading is that the volume arriving mid-pipeline is aimed primarily at small investors and small occupiers — the same segment already responsible for two-thirds of transactions under 1,000 sq ft. That is additive supply into the most competitive, most price-sensitive part of the market.

The genuinely scarce product — large, single-owned, well-located Grade A floorplates with modern specification — stays scarce until the pipeline shifts toward single ownership around 2030.

What the three new towers actually tell you

They are long-dated. The LMD tower's handover is Q2 2031. The Berkeley Tower and AHS announcements do not carry published completion dates. None of these towers relieves current tightness. They are 2029–2031 events, and they land after the strata-heavy 2028–2029 wave.

They are concentrated on two addresses. Sheikh Zayed Road and Business Bay. That concentration matters if you own office stock in those districts: your competition in 2030 is specified, named and under construction.

They signal confidence in prime, not in secondary. Developers committing AED 2.8 billion and USD 1.3 billion to Grade A towers on the city's primary commercial spine are betting that the premium for best-in-class space persists. The implicit corollary is that the gap between prime and secondary office widens.

If you own or are buying Dubai office space

• Underwrite 2028, not 2026. Current rents reflect a shortage that the pipeline is designed to end. Run your model with flat-to-softer rents from 2028 in the strata segment, and judge whether the deal still works.
• Single-owned beats strata on exit, not just on income. If you are buying a floor, understand that your resale market in 2029 competes with a wave of new strata product. If you are buying a building, you are in the scarcer category.
• Specification and transport access are the differentiators Savills keeps naming. Metro proximity, floorplate efficiency, ceiling height, modern MEP and amenity provision are what hold rent when supply arrives. Age and address alone will not.
• Check the owners' association before you check the yield. In a strata tower, the reserve fund, the service-charge collection rate and the state of the common areas are the real due diligence. A high yield on a building with a broken OA is a trap.
• Small-unit income is resilient but crowded. With 40% of transactions under 500 sq ft, there is deep demand for small offices — and the 2028 strata wave targets exactly that demand. Expect competition on fit-out quality and flexibility, not just rent.

If you are a tenant

• Lock long now if you need prime. Nothing arriving before 2029 changes the shortage of well-located Grade A space. A longer term today, at a negotiated rate, is likely cheaper than renewing into 2027 and 2028 scarcity.
• If you need more than 30,000 sq ft, start early and consider pre-letting. The largest single requirement recorded in Q3 2026 was over 30,000 sq ft, which tells you how rarely that size trades. Pre-letting in a new tower gives you input into specification.
• If you can wait and your need is under 1,000 sq ft, 2028 works in your favour. That is where the volume is coming.

Frequently asked questions

What is the average office rent in Dubai in 2026? Savills recorded an average of AED 241 (USD 66) per sq ft in Q3 2026.

How much new office space is coming to Dubai? About 20.4 million sq ft of gross leasable area between 2026 and 2030, per Savills, with the larger increase arriving from 2028.

What is Berkeley Tower? A Grade A office development in Business Bay by Ellington Properties with Al Hamra, of 60-plus floors, with a total development value of AED 2.8 billion.

What is being built on the former Shangri-La Dubai site? AHS Twin Towers by AHS Properties, designed by Gensler, on Sheikh Zayed Road, with a total project value of USD 1.3 billion.

Why does strata ownership matter for office investment? Because strata buildings have many owners, which complicates leasing to large occupiers, building management and repositioning. With strata at 86% of 2028 supply and 78% of 2029 supply, the mid-pipeline volume is concentrated in the segment that is hardest to differentiate and most exposed to competition.

Is Dubai office still a landlord's market? For well-located Grade A space, yes for now — rental transactions were down 8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026 but the shortage of quality stock persists. The pipeline from 2028 is designed to change that, particularly in the small-unit strata segment.

Where to go next

• Commercial real estate in Dubai: office and warehouse guide
• Case study: a Business Bay office at 8.7%
• Dubai commercial cap rates 2026
• VAT on commercial property in Dubai
• Dubai warehouse rents 2026: renewals at a record

Sources

• Savills Middle East Q3 2026 Dubai office research, reported by Arabian Business, 23 October 2026: average rent, rental transaction count and quarterly change, new-lease and renewal split, transaction size bands, 20.4 million sq ft pipeline to 2030, strata share of 2028 and 2029 supply, shift to single-owned by 2030, largest recorded requirement, and quotes from Toby Hall, Head of Commercial Agency
• Dubai Chronicle, 10 November 2026: Berkeley Tower (Ellington Properties and Al Hamra, Business Bay, 60-plus floors, AED 2.8 billion), Christian A. Rockefeller Business Tower (LMD, Sheikh Zayed Road, 87 storeys, handover Q2 2031), AHS Twin Towers (AHS Properties, Gensler, former Shangri-La Dubai site, USD 1.3 billion)

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Commercial is where I spend most of my time — offices, warehouses and labour accommodation. If you are buying a floor, a building or renewing a lease, I will show you the comparable rents, the owners' association position and what is under construction nearby before you commit. Get in touch through muhalabadam.com.